~ Evolution and the law of probability.
November 11, 2007 by Bakkouz
Filed under Sci & Tech
Evolutionists use probabilities to prove that life could have emerged on Earth by chance. Not only are such probabilities in the realm of impossible, Even if the chance that all the events coming together perfectly to create life on Earth is virtually an impossible probability with staggering odds (which it is), we are told by evolutionists that it should not matter. As the physicist Stenger says, “Why not? Given all possibilities, why shouldn’t it have happened? And why not all other possibilities as well? Our universe was formed in one of the infinite number of ways it could have formed. The particular structure of our universe came about by chance, freezing into form just like the six points of a snowflake.” So the evolutionist loads the dice with infinite universes and infinite time and that makes the impossibility of life coming to be by chance not a long shot, but a virtual surety.
Before we permit ourselves to get too excited about this “anything is possible” argument, let’s set the ground rules. If anything is possible—apples jumping off the ground and reattaching to trees, humans hatching out of chicken eggs, the desert sand turning into ocean, life emerging from lifeless matter—then there can be no certainty about anything. All science would end and we would fear putting one foot in front of the other because of the possibility of the floor turning to quicksand or disappearing entirely.
Yet that is not how things are, for you, me or the most devout of materialistic evolutionists. The philosopher Descartes, wrestling with a similar quandary concluded, “cogito ergo sum”, I think, therefore I am. That is a good starting point for us as well. We are real and our thinking process is real. The way we sort real from unreal, resolve important human issues and go about day-to-day life (thinking and being “I am”) is by ignoring the virtually impossible and banking on the probable, the reasonable and certain.
By what process does a scientist partition his mind such that he can one day busy himself about in the laboratory clanging together test tubes looking for high probabilities and certainty, go to sleep, wake up in the morning and then announce to a classroom or in an article that high improbabilities make certainty, i.e., life emerged by chance? By so doing he accepts unquestionably, as a philosophical premise, that which he would never excuse in others, namely that unlikely events are the ones we should bank on.
Remember, this same materialist rejects extrasensory perception, remote viewing, miracles, creation, foreknowledge, life after death and the like not because they are impossible, but because they appear improbable.
Double standard? Most certainly.
The illogic emerges from distorting the meaning of the math of probabilities. For example, if the chance of a simple protein coming into existence by chance is 1 in 10000000000000000000000000000000000000000 (it’s actually a much larger denominator than that but those are enough zeros for my point here), the “1” in the numerator is viewed as a very real possibility. It is not. That’s what all the zeros mean.
This is not a probability that argues what could happen but rather a probability that insists upon what will not happen. If the odds of something happening is 1 in 10, then the odds it won’t is 9 in 10. Odds for, of 1 in 10000000000, means odds against are 9999999999 in 10000000000. Extrapolate that to the larger number in the previous paragraph to see the virtual surety that the protein will not emerge by chance.
From a strictly probabilistic standpoint, the chance emergence and evolution of life is, by any reasonable definition of the word, impossible. Yet this impossibility becomes surety to the materialist because other possibilities (such as intelligent design), no matter how probable they may be, are just too unpalatable.
But all this play on numbers and odds assumes that the hypothetical phenomena of life emerging and evolving are a matter of chance. They are not. Scientific laws make things happen in a particular way, not chance. Things with mass fall to Earth, north poles attract south poles, negative charges attract positive charges and mass and energy are never destroyed, they just change places. An apple “could” jump to Pluto rather than fall to the ground and one could calculate the odds for that. But it won’t happen because there is a law of gravity and several others that declare it won’t. It’s not really a matter of odds; it’s a matter of law.
Now then, law governs every event that could lead to the emergence of life and to its evolution as well, not chance. The laws of chemistry, physics and biology declare and demand that order cannot emerge from chaos, life cannot emerge from non-life (law of biogenesis), and once order is present it cannot compound and improve upon itself (gain complexity and information) from chaos. Since life is highly ordered it could not therefore have emerged from a chaotic primordial soup. Neither could existent life have increased complexity (evolved) and transmutated from random events such as mutations.
The most obvious, well tested and sure of all laws in science and experience demands that order come from order, information from information and mind from mind. Spontaneous generation and evolution fly directly in the face of these laws. Probabilities do not change that.
Sari Al-Hiariٍ on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 8:55 am
Sounds about right, but you are ignoring the core argument of infinity of time.
By definition, infinity is boundless, meaning it is definitely bigger than any other number.
This also means that it doesn’t matter how many zeros are stacked against the proposition, the 1 possibility of that happening will happen, eventually.
Now that’s all theoretical, and you very wisely say “by any reasonable definition of the word”. Which means the bottom line is, theoretically it IS possible, but not reasonable.
That’s the thing with faith isn’t it. It isn’t necessarily provable under science, which means you will have to take a leap and just decide to believe something.
And while materialist evolutionists claim to be totally agnostic, I say that they are not. They have a huge amount of faith, their own preachers and miracles! :blink:
Sari Al-Hiariٍ on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 9:14 am
I wrote a lengthy response but its gone somehow. :getlost:
In any case, here is the jist.
I agree with what you are saying, but you are ignoring the fact that what they propose is correct under the conditions that they propose.
Meaning that by definition, infinity is bigger than any other number, meaning regardless of the number of zeros against the proposition, that 1 for the proposition will eventually happen.
This renders the argument possible, but unreasonable and requiring a huge leap of faith.
Which brings me to the point that agnostics (materialists, evolutionists …etc) are hypocrites. They base their whole argument on science, looking down on stupid creationists and believers. All the while taking a huge leap of faith, only into a different direction.
They do have their preachers, their miracles, and prophets, only theirs are not the same as everyone else’s.
Qwaider قويدر on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 10:04 am
Yep yep! Completely agree
3 things can never be explained. In my theory of evolution and religion and also survival of the fittest Part I and Part II
BobC on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 10:41 am
This is another flat-earther website spreading ignorant lies about evolution. Christians are terrified of evolution because they know evolution is the biggest threat to their idiotic religion.
Sari Al-Hiari on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 10:46 am
*lol* BobC.
This is NOT a flat-earther website.
This web site is NOT spreading lies, NOR is it ignorant.
I am guessing non of us here so far ar Christian.
And Christianity is not an idiotic religion.
Athankyoo.
The Guy Who Knows A Pigeon Called Frank on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 3:53 pm
nice post. However there is one overlooked issue here and it is ‘perspective’.
what i mean is that all our brainiest scientists and greatest thinkers are still thinking within the tiny box that is our own limited mentality. Consider the explanation given by a lesser capable being like a dog for example, as to the truths of this world. This is something i hit upon in the last chapter of Mad World, so take a look and let me know what you think.
BobC on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 7:18 pm
Christianity, Islam, Judaism, they are all the same to me. All religions are idiotic. All religious people think there’s an invisible man living in the clouds. What could be more insane than that?
“Since life is highly ordered it could not therefore have emerged from a chaotic primordial soup. Neither could existent life have increased complexity (evolved) and transmutated from random events such as mutations.”
Are you an evolution-denier or not? These claims are no less crazy than claiming the earth is flat. That’s why I called this a flat-earther website.
Life began and life evolved. How life began is a problem that has not been solved yet, but certainly it had to be a natural process. Many religious nuts claim it was magic but no sane scientist would say that. How life evolved is well known. It’s correct to say mutations are random, but there’s nothing random about the natural selection of mutations that help a species survive in a changing environment.
How do you explain the diversity of life? Evolution or supernatural magic?
Sari Al-Hiari on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 7:45 pm
*lol* BobC …
Hani Obaid on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 7:52 pm
Even the most improbable event can become likely given enough time. Say 13 Billion years or so ?
BobC on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 8:37 pm
Sari Al-Hiari, Is “lol” your reply to my question? I was hoping for a better answer. Do you accept evolution or not? If not, please explain how the diversity of life on earth got here.
Bakkouz on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 8:39 pm
Hani: A single event, perhaps, but a complete evolution of a whole planet with all the complexity of life forms within it? that surely cannot be a simple “event” of a cell evolving into a multitude of different species. this falls beyond the realm of probability, thats just wishful thinking, or should i say, fiction.
BobC on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 8:40 pm
Bakkouz: “this falls beyond the realm of probability, thats just wishful thinking, or should i say, fiction.”
Then how do you explain the diversity of life on earth?
Bakkouz on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 8:40 pm
And Bob, its not magic at all, its a calculated plan set forth into motion by an intelligent creator, simple as that
Bakkouz on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 8:42 pm
Bob: how does the diversity of life deny creation?
BobC on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 8:45 pm
Bakkouz, please define “creation”. Are you talking about magical supernatural creation? I’m new here so I can’t be sure what you believe. If magic is your explanation, then you would need to provide evidence. Your misconceptions about the power of natural selection are not evidence for anything.
BobC on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 8:47 pm
Oh, sorry, I missed your “its not magic at all, its a calculated plan set forth into motion by an intelligent creator”.
Please provide evidence for the creator. Have you ever seen it? Also, is the calculated plan called “evolution” or did the creator say “poof” to make everything appear?
BobC on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 8:52 pm
“how does the diversity of life deny creation?”
I should answer your question. If I understand correctly what you mean by “creation” then simple common sense should be enough to deny it. Natural processes, without any help from an invisible creator, are the only possible explanations for everything. Pretending there’s a creator who makes things happen does not solve any problems. It only creates a new problem: how did the creator get created. This is a problem evolution-deniers like to ignore.
Bakkouz on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 8:52 pm
No Bob, not magic at all. but God. I don’t suppose you believe in him. God is not magic, God is all about science and precise laws that govern everything in the universe.
Anyways, I’m not going to get into this debate, I’m not here to convince you that God exists, just as you won’t convince me that he doesn’t
BobC on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 9:00 pm
God can exist if you want. I’m not that interested in talking about other people’s invisible friends. Even if there is a universe boss, there’s no reason it was needed for the evolution of life. Evolution can no longer be denied because the DNA evidence proves it. Perhaps I misunderstand you. Are you saying God invented evolution, or did species appear magically? If you don’t like the word magically, then did species appear supernaturally? I don’t see any difference between supernatural and magic, but that’s not important. I just want to know how, according to you, God made animals. Was it evolution or “poof”? Thanks.
kinzi on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 9:01 pm
Bakkouz, you found yourself an evolution troll! I have to admit I feel a special kinship with creationist Muslims when one of these comes along.
Bob C - He, our Creator, was not created. He is ever-existent. For all your contempt, and all your pride in thinking you know it all, you will stand before His judgement seat. If I’m wrong, no biggee, I’m dead forever. But if you’re wrong, you’ll have a long time to think about it.
Sari Al-Hiari on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 9:03 pm
Oh wise one BobC.Thank you for bringing us enlightenment and leading us down the path of righteousness and salvation of our minds.
We now believe in evolution, and the holy book “The Descent Of Man” brought by prophet Darwin.
:angel: *tear in eye* *sniff* if only Carl Sagan was here to see this day.
Read the above BobC and realize a few things:
1. Yours is a religion, but unlike any other religion, it pretends to come with proof, while really having NO scientific proof for its core argument except for mere chance. And let me remind you that if an infinite number of monkies typed inifinitely on an infinite number of typewriters, they would eventually produce all human literature (including this). Absurdity.
2. No one is really going to convert because you insult their religion, so you better think why you are doing this. And choose a better approach for that.
So give it a rest.
BobC on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 9:04 pm
“you will stand before His judgement seat. If I’m wrong, no biggee, I’m dead forever. But if you’re wrong, you’ll have a long time to think about it.”
kinzi, you just threatened me with torture in hell. That’s not very nice.
Bakkouz on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 9:06 pm
God created everything, not only animals, and the DNA evidence that you speak of does not deny creation, the fact that some species underwent some kind of change over the years does not mean the evolved entirely from a single cell form. and it does not by any means deny the existence of God.
BobC on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 9:14 pm
“No one is really going to convert because you insult their religion, so you better think why you are doing this. And choose a better approach for that.”
I don’t try to “convert” people. I try to educate them. Studying evolution has been one of my hobbies for many years. Science is not my career and I could never understand evolution at the level of detail biologists understand it, but I know enough about the evidence for it to agree it’s a proven fact. I prefer not to try to explain the evidence for it, because that’s a lot of work, and creationists are not going to accept any of it anyway. I would like to at least tell you about the book I’m reading now. The author, a biologist, explains the DNA evidence. This is a complicated subject, but the author does a good job of explaining it to non-scientists like me. It’s extremely convincing. I’m certain anyone who was able to understand it could not possibly deny all life evolved. Here it is. Please read it unless you want to be willfully ignorant. The Making of the Fittest: DNA and the Ultimate Forensic Record of Evolution By Sean B. Carroll
anon on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 10:09 pm
In this day and age there are still people who deny evolution!?
BobC, don’t even try… you can’t educate the willfully ignorant.
BobC on Sun, 11th Nov 2007 11:14 pm
I agree anon. Once a creationist becomes an adult, there is nothing that can be done for him. Creationism is an incurable disease, and yes they are willfully ignorant. How many creationists will read the book I recommended? Probably zero. They like their fantasy world and they have no desire to escape from it. Some of them are willfully ignorant because they are lazy. Others are terrified of science because they believe educating themselves could result in torture in hell. Why risk losing eternal life in their wishful thinking called heaven when it’s much easier to just believe their religious brainwashing? Unfortunately for them, they are completely wasting the one life they have. They will live their entire lives not even knowing what they are, just an animal of an ape species.
Hani Obaid on Mon, 12th Nov 2007 12:02 am
“Hani: A single event, perhaps, but a complete evolution of a whole planet with all the complexity of life forms within it?”
That’s the beauty of it. It starts with a tiny marble that avalnches into a snowball, which becomes a blizzrd !
“And Bob, its not magic at all, its a calculated plan set forth into motion by an intelligent creator, simple as that”
Since you werent’ around then. Why only one creator ? Who says they did it on purpose ? or for the reasons we expect, why not a side-effect ? but that is for a different post.
Sari Al-Hiariٍ on Mon, 12th Nov 2007 7:01 am
:sleeping:
This isn’t fun any more.
Here is a man who openly admits to not fully understanding it, yet is willing to defend it with all he’s got.
Did you even read the book “The Descent of Man” where Darwin himself points out examples where his theory of evolution does NOT work.
And by the way, you should know the people you are talking to. I my self am a scientist by education and profession (well, until recently). I am guessing Bakkouz himself is into technical research.
And unlike you, we did read the book and took *for what it’s worth*.
The mere fact that you stipulate this theory as a fact while the scientific world still refer to it as a *THEORY* tells me that …… you know what, never mind. No offense, but you are not worth the effort. I have science things I need to attend to.
Omar on Mon, 12th Nov 2007 8:56 am
BobC, I would argue that the primary reason why creationists (such as myself) don’t accept evolution is not among the ones you mentioned but rather that the evolution theory runs deeply counter to human logic and intuition.
I mean, it takes more than fossils and theories about DNA mutations to convince a simple person like me that the complexity that we understand (and don’t understand) about the digestive, nervous, vessels, etc system are all the works of genetic mutations, etc…. and that it was not “intelligently designed”.
(Granted, science made numerous discoveries that were iniitally thought to be counter-intuitive… but with this one (evolution) it will take more than the presented evidence to make the leap against logic and intuition.)
kinzi on Mon, 12th Nov 2007 11:07 am
Bob C, who threatened you with torture? I just said if creationists are right, you would have a long time to think about it. If a place without God is what you want, then He graciously supplies. But it is not what I would want for you, and I am praying for you otherwise.
BTW< I AM sorry I was snarky with you. It wasn’t kind, and I do regret it. I feel it is sad that you deliver your message with such contempt, as there would be more room for you to influence people with just the facts and a little nicer tone. In my years of talking to evolutionists, the ones who actually come to believe in God are the ones most vehemently opposed to it.
I became an ID believer in my 30s. My husband is a biochemist, he was an AIDS researcher, quite brilliant. He says it takes more faith to believe in the statistical probability of evolution than Intelligent Design.
Hani: thanks for your manner of delivery…I need to look this up in your blog archives!
BobC on Mon, 12th Nov 2007 5:33 pm
“Here is a man who openly admits to not fully understanding it, yet is willing to defend it with all he’s got.”
I don’t know much about our planet’s orbit around our sun, but I know enough to say the earth’s orbit is a fact. Since I have been studying evolution for several years, including reading books written in the 21st Century instead of the 19th Century, I know enough about evolution to say it’s a fact. I also have the advantage of having the entire scientific community on my side. It’s impossible to find a competent biologist anywhere in the world who has any doubt all life evolved.
“I my self am a scientist by education and profession (well, until recently).”
“The mere fact that you stipulate this theory as a fact while the scientific world still refer to it as a *THEORY* tells me that”
I’m surprised a person who claims to be a scientist does not seem to understand the definition of the word “theory” as it is used by scientists.
Theory: “A set of statements or principles devised to explain a group of FACTS or phenomena, especially one that has been repeatedly tested or is widely accepted and can be used to make predictions about natural phenomena.”
Evolution is a Fact and a Theory
http://www.talkorigins.org/faq.....-fact.html
The ENTIRE scientific world calls evolution a FACT. This website contains statements from several dozen scientific organizations about evolution. I suggest you and the other flat-earthers here take a look at it.
http://www.ncseweb.org/resourc.....9_2002.asp
Here is one of many dozens of examples from the above website:
THE PALEONTOLOGICAL SOCIETY POSITION STATEMENT: EVOLUTION
Evolution is both a scientific fact and a scientific theory. Evolution is a fact in the sense that life has changed through time. In nature today, the characteristics of species are changing, and new species are arising. The fossil record is the primary factual evidence for evolution in times past, and evolution is well documented by further evidence from other scientific disciplines, including comparative anatomy, biogeography, genetics, molecular biology, and studies of viral and bacterial diseases.
Evolution is also a theory — an explanation for the observed changes in life through Earth history that has been tested numerous times and repeatedly confirmed. Evolution is an elegant theory that explains the history of life through geologic time; the diversity of living organisms, including their genetic, molecular, and physical similarities and differences; and the geographic distribution of organisms. Evolutionary principles are the foundation of all basic and applied biology and paleontology, from biodiversity studies to studies on the control of emerging diseases.
Another flat-earther said “I feel it is sad that you deliver your message with such contempt, as there would be more room for you to influence people with just the facts and a little nicer tone.”
You will probably use my “tone” as an excuse to be willfully ignorant. I could care less. Creationists are wasting their lives, not mine. If creationists want to continue being the laughing-stock of the world, that’s fine with me.
I deliver my message with contempt for a good reason. There’s no excuse for denying all live evolved from a common ancestor. There’s no excuse for denying humans are an ape species.
flat-earther: One who stubbornly adheres to outmoded or discredited ideas.
contempt: The feeling or attitude of regarding someone or something as inferior, base, or worthless; scorn.
I have nothing but contempt for the flat-earthers who are too lazy to educate themselves, and too god-soaked to understand how wrong they are.
The DNA evidence is proof creationists are wrong about everything. They could read the book (published in 2006) I recommended earlier to understand why, but they won’t read it because they are LAZY.
BobC on Mon, 12th Nov 2007 6:02 pm
These comments did not go thru the 1st time. At first I thought they were censored but I was wrong.
“Here is a man who openly admits to not fully understanding it, yet is willing to defend it with all he’Âs got.”
I don’t know much about our planet’s orbit around our sun, but I know enough to say the earth’s orbit is a fact. Since I have been studying evolution for several years, including reading books written in the 21st Century instead of the 19th Century, I know enough about evolution to say it’s a fact. I also have the advantage of having the entire scientific community on my side. It’s impossible to find a competent biologist anywhere in the world who has any doubt all life evolved.
“I my self am a scientist by education and profession (well, until recently).”
“The mere fact that you stipulate this theory as a fact while the scientific world still refer to it as a *THEORY* tells me that”
I’m surprised a person who claims to be a scientist does not seem to understand the definition of the word “theory” as it is used by scientists.
Theory: “A set of statements or principles devised to explain a group of FACTS or phenomena, especially one that has been repeatedly tested or is widely accepted and can be used to make predictions about natural phenomena.”
Evolution is a Fact and a Theory
http://www.talkorigins.org/faq.....-fact.html
The ENTIRE scientific world calls evolution a FACT. This website contains statements from several dozen scientific organizations about evolution. I suggest you and the other flat-earthers here take a look at it.
http://www.ncseweb.org/resourc.....9_2002.asp
Here is one of many dozens of examples from the above website:
THE PALEONTOLOGICAL SOCIETY POSITION STATEMENT: EVOLUTION
Evolution is both a scientific fact and a scientific theory. Evolution is a fact in the sense that life has changed through time. In nature today, the characteristics of species are changing, and new species are arising. The fossil record is the primary factual evidence for evolution in times past, and evolution is well documented by further evidence from other scientific disciplines, including comparative anatomy, biogeography, genetics, molecular biology, and studies of viral and bacterial diseases.
Evolution is also a theory — an explanation for the observed changes in life through Earth history that has been tested numerous times and repeatedly confirmed. Evolution is an elegant theory that explains the history of life through geologic time; the diversity of living organisms, including their genetic, molecular, and physical similarities and differences; and the geographic distribution of organisms. Evolutionary principles are the foundation of all basic and applied biology and paleontology, from biodiversity studies to studies on the control of emerging diseases.
Another flat-earther said “I feel it is sad that you deliver your message with such contempt, as there would be more room for you to influence people with just the facts and a little nicer tone.”
You will probably use my “tone” as an excuse to be willfully ignorant. I could care less. Creationists are wasting their lives, not mine. If creationists want to continue being the laughing-stock of the world, that’s fine with me.
I deliver my message with contempt for a good reason. There’s no excuse for denying all live evolved from a common ancestor. There’s no excuse for denying humans are an ape species.
flat-earther: One who stubbornly adheres to outmoded or discredited ideas.
contempt: The feeling or attitude of regarding someone or something as inferior, base, or worthless; scorn.
I have nothing but contempt for the flat-earthers who are too lazy to educate themselves, and too god-soaked to understand how wrong they are.
The DNA evidence is proof creationists are wrong about everything. They could read the book (published in 2006) I recommended earlier to understand why, but they won’t read it because they are LAZY.
3awwad on Thu, 15th Nov 2007 2:44 am
My name is 3awwad. I am a typical Jordanian citizen. I work from 8:00 AM to 2:00 PM and my salary does not exceed JD 250. You can call me “Monsieur Tout le monde” if you like. Excuse my low intelligence quotient, but this article is too complicated.
mario on Thu, 22nd Nov 2007 4:57 pm
Iam a student i have parent who pay my fees but is not alway enough especially when am in need nobody come to my rescue
Tony on Sun, 10th Aug 2008 7:02 am
for all those of you stuck on the concept of infinity making evolution and other such fairy tales possible, please consider the following:
point #1 we are here (meaning now)
point #2 the past, therefore, cannot be infinite or else we woul never arrive to point #1
point #3 there was, therefore, a beginning
point #4 Laws of thermodynamics: matter/energy cannot be created or destroyed (in a closed system) just transferred/rearranged (the reasoning works in an open system as well, see point #5)
point # 5 matter/energy was created by a force unbound by the laws of physics,time,space,etc. GOD!
Tony on Sun, 10th Aug 2008 7:11 am
This is for BoBC
Can anyone of you self-proclaimed scientists PROVE to me that the universe is made up of only measurable and observable phenomenon???
I didn’t think so!
So the simple fact that you eliminate God as a possible explaination is not a scientific reason but a philosophical predisposition! You HAVE to prove that everything has a materialistic explaination while everything in the universe points in the other direction. and I don’t know what rock you practice science under but there are scores of emminent scientist that left your Evolution Avalon a long time ago. Your theory makes swiss cheese look like 24k solid gold buillon and they said “no thanks, we’re here for the truth, no matter where it may take us!”
isfiske on Sun, 9th Nov 2008 1:04 am
well said tony. one can not rule out anything that has not been proven incorrect.